Not much is left of the BJP-JD(U) alliance that was forged in 1995 by LK Advani and George Fernandes. Advani has been given the short shrift by the BJP and Fernandes’ health issues have made him redundant in contemporary Indian politics. There’s little debating the fact that the BJP-JD(U) alliance was one with great political chops. Together, the parties overthrew Lalu Prasad Yadav and the RJD’s 15-year-long rule in Bihar. They assumed power in the state for two consecutive terms. All that, however, is now history. The parties have decided to part ways on a bitter note with Bihar CM Nitish Kumar refusing to see eye to eye with Narendra Modi, BJP’s election campaign chief who is also rumoured to be the party’s PM candidate.
Both the parties have put up a brave face amid the turbulence and have declared that the split will work in their individual benefits. The BJP, buoyed by Narendra Modi‘s prospects in national politics, are seeing this is a roadblock removed from the Gujarat CM’s and with him, the party’s ascent to power. The JD(U) seems to be pleased with the fact that they have played the secularism card well and by deserting the BJP over the Modi issue will make them look like a messiah for the Muslim community. The move will also make JD(U) a kingmaker of sorts in the 2014 polls and if luck shines on the party, it’ll also find itself as a part of the federal front Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee has been talking about.
Some BJP leaders are probably right when they say that the split might rob the Bihar government of popular faith. Some have also pointed out that Bihar CM Nitish Kumar was the biggest beneficiary of the BJP-JD(U) alliance. After the alliance was formed, Nitish was made the agriculture minister and then the railway minister when the NDA was in power for six years.
Following that, Nitish assumed power in Bihar as the chief minister. The BJP did not oppose the decision to elect Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate in the 2005 polls in Bihar. Since then Nitish has proven to be a skillful administrator and a smart politician. BJP, therefore, has interpreted Nitish’ move to oppose Modi’s rise to national prominence, as an instance of calculated opportunism.
The idea that the BJP-JD(U) fall-out has been designed by Nitish to advance his own political ambitions has some roots in the past. In 1994, after serving as the secretary general of the Janata Dal in Bihar, Nitish parted ways with long-time colleague Lalu Prasad Yadav. Consequently, the Samata Party was formed and then the JD(U). The result of his split with Lalu was also this alliance with the BJP which gave wings to his ministerial ambitions. He served as a union minister in the NDA and then took over as the chief minister of Bihar. Thus it is not entirely wrong to speculate about the possibility of other designs Nitish Kumar might have for his own career which urged him to take up cudgels against Modi.
However, one should keep in mind that the two political scenarios – the split with Lalu and the tiff with BJP – are entirely different in nature. In past, Nitish was pitted against Lalu who was anyway a force on a wane. Nitish came as a breath of fresh air to a state struggling with corruption, stunted development and violence. Now, he is up against Narendra Modi, who for a part of the nation and the anti-UPA brigade is synonymous with development and progress.
Also, Modi is loved by the upper castes. And while Nitish might want to flaunt his special status demand as a marker for his development plans, Modi is the chief minister of a state that is hailed for its development. Like Nitish, Modi too is an OBC leader but the latter’s OBC credentials have so far not been used in vote-gathering. However, when Modi travels to Bihar in the coming days, his caste is bound to come up and blunt a bit of Nitish’s edge. BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi has already starting making noises to the same effect. He has gone on record saying that it is high time the country elects its first OBC Prime Minister in Modi.
When it comes to choosing a Prime Minister on similar grounds of caste, people are most likely to vote for Modi and Nitish will have to be content with being just a chief minister. Probably reason why the Bihar CM started talking about a Third or Federal front even before the split was formalised – it was to make people aware of the fact that he was ready to take up a bigger role in national politics.
The BJP has started working to undo the damage done by Nitish. It could have an alliance, local level seat adjustment with an erstwhile JD(U) leader, Upendra Kushwaha, a Koeri leader with substantial following. The fact that the BJP will for the first time get to contest in 35-40 seats in Bihar if a deal with Kushwaha is made, has thrown up a bunch of enthusiastic aspirants within the party.
Behind the superficial bravado of the Janata Dal(U) leaders is an apprehension, that without the BJP’s support and transfer of votes, many of the party’s MPs might not be able to return to the Parliament. A worry that has dampened the enthusiasm over the split with BJP.
However, while the Modi versus Nitish tussle might be giving sleepless nights to both their parties, it has given the Congress reasons to cheer. After all, it has waited for a while for the JD(U) to fall in line with their own agenda of vote-bank secularism.
